Friday, January 21, 2011

EXPLANATORY AND INTERPRETIVE RESEARCH OF THE DYNAMICS OF DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION: DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL FACTORS OF COUPS IN THE KYRGYZ REPUBLIC IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS, 2005-2010



Abstract

This research focuses on dynamics of regime changes with the intention of analyzing the domestic and international factors that cause coups in the countries through the example of the case of Kyrgyzstan. The answers of the questions of why democratic regimes collapse and why the coups take place in the countries is researched through the exploratory and interpretive analyses of the domestic and international causes of the Tulip Revolution of 2005 and the 2010 Kyrgyzstani uprising. Firstly, the corruption, increased living expenses, and effects of global financial crisis on the countries are examined as main elements of economic variables of the coups. Then, concentrating on the elements of the political variable of the coups such as authoritarianism, nepotism, bad relations between government and opposition and shifting elites. The research concludes with a brief analysis of hegemony of dominant powers on politically and economicly weak but geopolitically important countries in the region as an international variable.

    Introduction

The democracy is the best way for people as a political form of government because of its structure of supplying a better representation and more freedoms for their citizens than other political forms of government in the world. However, sometimes democracies may breakdown or there may be intervals or transitions in democracies. The problem is democratic breakdown in the countries. As a result of this problem, people suffer too much. The recent example of this is faced in the Kyrgyz Republic. Today, there are six independent Turkic states in the international arena (except Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus), and Kyrgyzstan is one of these six independent Turkic states since 1991. It has very important geographical position in the Central Asia. Although it is a landlocked and mountainous country, it is located or bordered by Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and People's Republic of China. Its capital and largest city is Bishkek (Frunze). However this country faced with two big coups in the last five years. Firstly Kyrgyzstan faced with so called the Tulip Revolution in March 2005. President Askar Akayev is forced to resign through this coup. Moreover, under the leadership of Kurmanbek Bakiyev, opposition leaders formed a coalition, and Kurmanbek Bakiyev became the new President of Kyrgyzstan. However, because of some reasons that I will explain in this research, demonstrations started in Kyrgyzstan. This affected whole country and Mr. Bakiev`s regime was overthrown and Roza Otunbayeva became the new President of Kyrgyzstan as a result of this coup in 2010. The coups are the main reason for the interruptions and transitions in democracies. On account of the fact, the main purpose of this research paper will be analyzing both domestic and international factors that cause coups in the countries through variables and some hypotheses with observations through the example of the two coups in Kyrgyzstan in the last five years. It is worth doing, because this research will provide the light for the general causes of democratic breakdown or problems in the democratic transitions through the example of Kyrgyzstan, and maybe this research can be a light for solving the problems in the democratic transitions and interruptions in democracies. In addition to this, the relationship between the independent variables and the dependent variables will be seen, clearly in this research by way of the economic, political, and international variables of the coups and their results on the topic. Moreover, the differences and contributions of this research on the literature and the preceding works on the democratic breakdown issue will be mentioned and examined.  Finally, the paper concludes by ensuring overview of the analysis, briefly, and important points that is mentioned in the research.

Why Democratic Regimes Collapse and Why the Coups Take Place in the Countries?
  •      Economic Variables of the Coups
o   Corruption
o   Increasing living expenses
o   Effects of financial crisis
  •     Political Variables of the Coups
o   Nepotism
o   Authoritarianism
o   Bad relations between government and the opposition leaders
o   Shifting elites
  •    International Variables of the Coups
o   Hegemony on the politically and economicly weak but geopolitically important countries by dominant powers

                                                                                                                        Isa Burak GONCA

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