The South Stream Project and the European Union's Energy Supply Security

After the project of Trans-Anatolia Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP) was signed between Turkey and Azerbaijan, the South Stream project was signed between Turkey and Russia, yesterday. Russia reaches Southstream agreement with Turkey. Russia has said it has reached an agreement with Ankara permitting Moscow to bed down the Southstream natural gas pipeline to Europe via Turkish territorial waters. The agreement of the construction of South Stream was signed with the participation of Energy and Natural Resources Minister of Turkey, Taner Yildiz, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin and Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. This seems like the second giant step for Turkey in energy, but it can create some problems in the future for Turkey and Europe.

In South Stream project, Russia's overall objective seems like a strategy to bypass Ukraine’s gas transit system. However, Russia's other aim may be bypassing the Nabucco project through South Stream Pipeline?

Nabucco is planned to carry gas from the Caucasus and Central Asia to the European Union aimed at reducing dependence on Russian gas. Some countries in Europe were not pleasant after the South Stream agreement between Turkey and Russia.

Turkey argues that the two natural gas pipeline would be complementary to each other.

According to the Financial Times, about 15 billion Euros in the future of Nabucco natural gas not provided sufficient to justify the investment because of doubts about the uncertain situation.

İsa Burak GONCA 

Read More

North Korean leader Kim Jong-il dead

Chosun Central News Agency (KCNA) reported on the morning of the 19th that North Korean Leader Kim Jong Il died on his private train due to overwork on the 17th at 8:30 a.m.

In a short dispatch, KCA stated, "Chariman Kim passed away in the train on December 17th, 2011 at 8:30am due to physical overwork."

He took the helm of the communist state upon the death of his father and national founder Kim Il-sung in 1994. His successor, Kim Jong-il has announced that 20 year-old son, Kim Jong Un.

According to press in South Korea, North Korea test-fires missile after Kim Jong-il had died. South Korea's Yonhap news agency claimed, a military official made ​​a statement that the missile test is linked to the death of Kim Jong-il. South Korea and Japan is on the emergency situation.

After the death of North Korean leader, North Korea may behave aggressively in the short term in order to sort of show weak or not exposures. But in the long run, this aggressive attitude of North Korea will give up if the young leader of North Korea does not become the victim of his ambitions.

It’s a surprise but nothing to get alarmed about. There is probably no need to put the South Korean military on alert. Let’s see how this is digested in North Korea. There might be interesting developments in North Korea in near future.

Read More

Putin's party wins but suffers setback in Russian Duma Election

Today's parliamentary elections in Russia, Vladimir Putin's ruling United Russia Party had won the day. Putin's United Russia Party won 49.5 percent of votes, a significant drop from their current two-thirds majority in parliament with a decline from 315 seats to around 220 in Russia's 450-seat State Duma - lower house of parliament after Sunday's election. Putin's party won 64 percent of the vote in 2007, but his party won 50 percent of votes in the last election.

The Communist Party of the Russian Federation came in second to United Russia, polling 19.8 percent of the vote. Third and fourth were closely contested, according to exit polls, with the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia brining in 12.8 percent, and the centrist Fair Russia party gaining 11.4 percent.

In the meantime, the Communist Party, said in a statement from its website, the elections were conducted largely systematic and lawlessness.

United Russia has been the country's leading political force for the better part of a decade. It was created by Putin in 2001. A strong showing in the parliamentary elections would be considered a boost to Putin's campaign for president, which will be decided in a vote 2012.

Read More

10 years of BRIC countries

Ten years ago, Goldman Sachs' global economist Jim O'Neill introduced the BRIC statement into our lives. He argues that "the economic potential of Brazil, Russia, India and China is such that they could become among the four most dominant economies by the year 2050" (Financial Times, 2006).

Since 2001, the BRIC countries continued to develop rapidly. 2008 Financial Crisis affected even if they are not influenced much of Europe and America. In ten years, the BRIC countries have made a lot of meetings and have signed for co-operation.

Can the BRIC be rival of the European Union or ASEAN as a political alliance?

BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China) continued to develop in the last 10 years. Today when we look at the European Union, we can see that the Euro zone started to clattered. Moreover, the European Union appears as economical union instead of a political union, the biggest disadvantage of the union is that there is not a common foreign policy and energy policy. ASEAN also has the same problems. If your union has not a powerful country like China, you cannot influence your region easily. Therefore, a strong association between the BRIC countries will affect both the European Union and ASEAN.

CIVETS versus BRIC

The biggest rival or alternative of BRIC can be CIVETS. "A colleague at the Economist Intelligence Unit has suggested more attention be paid in 2010 to the CIVETS: a second tier of big emerging markets consisting of Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa" (Economist, 2009). The CIVETS (Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa) is an acronym for favored emerging markets coined in late 2009 by Robert Ward, Global Forecasting Director for the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). The term has also been used by HSBC's chief executive Michael Geoghegan. These countries are favored for several reasons, such as a dynamic and diverse economy and a young growing population. So, CIVETS can be a powerful alternative of BRIC. 

Last but not least, both BRIC and CIVETS countries can affect deeply G-6 countries (France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States. To become politically active, the United Nations Security Council five permanent countries' veto right needs to be resolved. 

İsa Burak GONCA

Read More